Changing the Status quo

Given that twelve of the previous nineteen World Cup editions have been won by only three countries, a world cup elite group was inevitably been created in the subconscious of most fans and pundits. There is only a select group of countries that are viewed as realistically having a chance of winning the World cup or even make it to the semifinal stage of the tournament.   

After a pulsating first round at the 2014 world cup edition that has delivered a record number of goals, the knock out stages are being greeted by an air of anxiety as fans have been primed to expect the unexpected. There seems to be a changing of status quo as some heavy weights are knocked out by less traditional football powers and there are suspicions that this could be the World Cup when the semi-finals are finally graced by some different teams.

The biggest surprise of all is probably the emergence of Costa Rica from a group of previous world champions. Almost all predictions had a combination of two from Italy, England or Uruguay qualifying. No one would have expected that a Costa Rica team that was ranked at a lowly 66^th as recently as 2012 would so comfortably dispatch its illustrious rivals and make it to the next round with a game to spare. Given that every world cup usually has a “Cinderella story” of an unfancied team that makes it to the quarter finals, Costa Rica should overcome Greece to complete their christening as the 2014 World Cup Cinderella team.

Before we check in to see the progression of our Cinderella story, there is the little matter of the battle for South American supremacy to settle. Having impressively seen off the defending Champions, Chile has an opportunity to announce their emergence as a new power house by defeating the hosts. Chile’s skill, pace and power should give them the ability to more than match the pre-tournament favorites, but at this stage it will take flawless refereeing to hold out against pressure from the crowd. Colombia on the other hand should easily overcome a toothless Uruguay. Given that they were defiant about Suarez, their start striker sinking his teeth in an opponent’s shoulder; very few neutrals will regret Uruguay’s elimination.

Having barely sneaked into this World Cup after a chaotic qualifying CONCACAF campaign, Mexico has been one of the most impressive teams on show at the tournament. Facing an equally impressive Dutch side that only lost the last World Cup in extra time, this promises to be the most exciting game of the second round. I am tipping a moment of magic from Robben or van Persie to determine a very even contest in favor of the Europeans.

In a battle between Europe and Africa, events of the last few days lead me to think we may not have much of a contest especially between France and Nigeria. Despite impressing against Argentina, Nigeria’s performances at this tournament have left many wondering how they won the Africa Cup. Having lost a whole day of training as they joined two other West African nations demonstrating for unpaid allowances, one can’t help but imagine what these countries could have achieved if they focused nearly as well as their opponents. Algeria on the other hand will be extra motivated to punish Germany for their part in a conspiracy to eliminate Algeria from the 1982 World Cup group stages. I expect this to be a gritty contest that the Germans will finally edge tactically and with their quality in the attacking third of the field.

The final set of second round matches pits two of Europe’s emerging teams against the best from South America and COCACAF. Argentina which had to rely on Messi’s brilliance to get them through the group stages will need more of the same and a better team performance to keep their match towards a third World Cup title. I suspect this may be the stage where we finally start to see the best of Argentina. Belgium on the other hand considered favorites heading into their match up against United States have only demonstrated their strength in the last quarter of matches. Brimming with confidence after impressive performances against bogey side Ghana and Portugal, another of Europe’s power houses, I have a feeling that United States’ fighting spirit will overcome Belgium and force these two emerging European powers to wait until Euro 2016 to announce their arrival on the big stage.

Inches Away

In the movie “Any Given Sunday”, Al Pacino playing Coach Tony D'Amato delivers one of the most inspiring sports speeches of all time to help save The Miami Sharks American Football team’s season. In his famous speech, dubbed “Inch by Inch”, highlighting the fine margins between winning and losing, Tony encouraged his players to fight for every inch on that football field with their lives. Those fine margins between winning and losing have never been more evident than in the world cup matches of the last few days.

With host nation Brazil looking to put on a more convincing display than their controversial opening day win, they were denied time and again by Mexico’s Guillermo Ochoa, often at full stretch. Thanks to one of the most inspired World Cup goal keeping performances, El Tri (Mexico’s team) retain control of their destiny heading into the final group game against Croatia.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is one team that was unjustly denied control of their destiny. Enjoying their maiden World Cup tournament, the Bosnian’s were on course to win their first points, only to have their goal wrongly disallowed for offside. Moments later, they conceded a goal despite Nigeria arguably committing a foul in the buildup. Bosnia and Herzegovina will thus only have pride to play for when they face an Iranian side that was harshly denied a famous point against Argentina by Messi’s last ditch brilliance.

Just two days earlier, with the prospect of the nation that invented football being kicked out in the first round of a World Cup for the first time in fifty-six years, England had battled their way back to level the tie with just fifteen minutes to go. With momentum appearing to swing in England’s favor, their captain’s attempt to head a long goal kick back to the opposition half turned out to be an assist for Uruguay’s Suarez. Had Gerard been able to jump an inch higher, the English would probably have pushed on to the next round as group rivals Italy went on to lose to previously unfancied Costa Rica.

With fellow European giants Spain and England knocked out after two games, Portugal was on the cusp of elimination. Having fought for every inch to overcome an early deficit, United States was a few seconds away from confirming second round qualification. An evidently less than fit Cristiano Ronaldo had been subdued for much of the game, but he managed to deliver an inch perfect cross to Silvestre Varela’s head for the equalizer that literally pulled the next round from under United States’ feet with the last kick of the game. United States lives to fight another day with their destiny still in their hands, although facing a German side in need of a result to seal their place in the next round is a position few will envy.

Congratulations to Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica and Netherlands for qualifying to the round of sixteen. Brazil is also practically in the next round given that their last obstacle is the shambolic Cameroon side which has its players doing more harm to each other than the opposition. With nine more places up for grabs, it is only the teams with players that are willing to die for that extra inch that will make it to the next round.

The World Cup Midas Touch

Watching games from Group C to Group G over the last few days, the value of having a personality with a “midas touch” on a World Cup team could not have been made more evident. I mean those personalities who seem to fit the biggest stage as perfectly as hand in glove. In especially the tight games, these personalities seem to give their teams the edge over opposing teams that deserve to at least win a share of the points.

The build up to this World Cup was dominated by pundits highlighting the importance of youth to cope with the sweltering conditions in Brazil at this time of the year. Tellingly though, despite what has been described as the best England performance at a major tournament in the last decade and a half, Italy’s 35 year old Andre Pirlo pulled the strings in midfield and delivered passes that exposed England’s left flank, eventually leading to the winning goal for Italy. Similarly in a game in which the Japanese delivered a very impressive performance to hold onto a single goal lead for long periods, it took the late introduction of 36 year old Didier Drogba to give Ivory Coast the cutting edge that eventually won them the match.

Talking of match winners, World Cup fans anticipated none more eagerly than the four-time World Player of the Year award winner. Faced with a very well drilled Bosnian side that was threatening to burst the bubble of one of the tournament favorites, Lionel Messi single handedly ripped the opposing defense apart to deliver the winning goal for Argentina. Given that this tournament is being hosted by their next door neighbors, many are predicting that the little number 10 will carry Argentina to the World title with dominance similar to the one of his predecessors, Diego Maradona did in 1986.

Few personalities have been fortunate enough to enjoy the midas touch both as players and coaches. A World Cup winner as a player and boasting the sixth highest number of goals scored at a World Cup (11), Jurgen Klinsmann’s first managerial job saw him lead German to the semi-finals of World Cup 2006. Facing a Ghana side which had beaten USA at the previous two World Cups, even the American commentators were suggesting caution after the Ghanaian equalizer, as a draw would represent progress. The man with the World Cup midas touch had other ideas, making the substitution that would eventually deliver the winning goal that had even Klinsmann’s harshest critics labeling him a genius.

As though there is something synonymous between German forwards and the midas touch for World Cups, this tournament’s first hat trick was delivered by Thomas Muller. Top scorer at the previous World Cup edition with five goals when he was just 20 years old, his three goals in the opener against Portugal have Muller on track to be the first player to win the golden boot at back-to-back world cups and eventually overhaul the record World Cup tally of 15 goals.

The World Cup is a stage on which the talent of many national heroes has been suffocated. Faced with the weight of expectations and scrutiny of doubters, only a select group rises to the occasion, establishing themselves as genuine world greats to be discussed in football history for generations to follow. Didier Deschamps and Neymar are other notable personalities that their respective countries, France and Brazil, believe have the World Cup midas touch. In a sport where only the champions are remembered, it will be interesting to see whose midas touch will deliver World Cup 2014 to his country.

The End Justifies the Means

It may seem strange that I am discussing “the end” after just two World Cup groups have had their opening round of matches, but this World Cup happens to be in Brazil. See, over the years Brazilian fans have been generally recognized as the ultimate purists, concerned not only about winning games but how they win them. If Dani Alve’s pregame battle cry had helped build their anticipation for this world cup, the first 60 minutes of Brazil’s exchanges against Croatia did more to put a touch of reality. This was affirmed by the Brazilian press uniting in celebration of a star that had a lucky scuffed shot and dodgy penalty decision to thank for their opening round victory. Little wonder Neymar was modest enough to make sure he shook referee Yuichi Nishimura’s hand before leaving the field for his substitution. All that truly mattered, at least for this first game, was that Brazil found a way of recording victory!

Speaking of referees, football is one sport that has long held a strong line against technology, using the argument that controversial decisions are part of the game’s appeal. Well, the referees for Group A’s opening round of matches were accordingly determined to upstage each other in causing controversy. Fortunately for Mexico, the Columbian referee’s two controversially denied goals were not enough to prevent the victory that their dominant performance merited.

Back to the purists, having been denied the show of artistry that past Brazilian teams have got them accustomed to, we were left to second guess the motivation for the vocal Brazilian fans in Salvador for the Group B opener. Given the lavish praise that Brazilian football officials have heaped on Spanish football as they worked to build an even silkier Brazilian team to dethrone them, we could be excused for thinking that the fans were drawn in to watch a demonstration the style they covet. The fans however seemed more intent on booing every touch that lost son Diego Costa made during the game.

 Switching to Diego Costa, one can’t help but wonder whether the Brazilians only truly wanted him when they realized that they could lose him to their major threat, Spain. Brazilian coach Scolari had after all only played Costa in two friendly games and seemed to favor Fred and Jo as his center forwards. The promise of a staggering 720,000 euros each in bonuses for the Spanish team players if they win the World Cup may throw more weight behind claims in Brazil that Costa’s switching of allegiances was more financially motivated than strategic to gain playing time for a team that truly wanted him. What cannot be discounted though is that he has finally made a World Cup appearance!

 On the subject of strategy, Australia is one team that brilliantly found a way of ensuring routine qualification to the world cup by switching allegiance from Oceania to Asia qualifying region. Having missed out on eight consecutive world cup editions, Australia now find themselves at their third consecutive world cup!

 Australia may only be the tournament’s lowest ranked team but they definitely played with more pride than the number one ranked La Roja did in their respective world cup openers. In a repeat of the last World Cup’s final, Netherlands found a way of putting the record right by not only delivering a thumping 5:1 victory against the defending champions, but delivering it with the style that has led many to label the “best footballing nation to never win a World Cup.” The brilliance of Robben and van Persie provided the Dutch with the means to not only avenge the defeat that has haunted them over the last four years, but enjoy the luxury of doing it with the style they believe “Orange” should be associated with!

Success at World Cup 2014

With this World Cup promising to be one of the biggest football celebrations in generations, the last four years should prove to be worth the wait. Brazil is widely acknowledged as the spiritual home of football with the game so deeply entrenched in its culture, and Brazilians know how to throw a party! If as predicted by right back Dani Alves, the Seleção open up their campaign with a thumping message to their rivals, the samba dance will last the distance in this World Cup like the vuvuzela did at the last.

Brazil and South America will however not be the only region looking to celebrate a successful World Cup. Countries representing Africa, Asia, Europe, North and Central America and Caribbean, and Oceania regions will each be vying for various measures of success to mark World Cup 2014 favorably in their history.

Given that all previous nineteen editions have been won by European or South American teams, it would take a shock of unprecedented proportions for a contender from another region to win it. With the exception of select countries like Ghana, United States, Ivory Coast and Japan that have recently put up strong World Cup challenges, countries from other regions will consider qualifying to the knock out stages great success.

History does not favor European teams for this tournament, as they have never won a World Cup on South American soil. With the exception of giants like Spain, Germany and Italy, getting to the semi-final will be considered a major success by most European countries. Netherlands, widely considered the best footballing nation to never win the World Cup, may also only consider another final appearance to be success.

This is generally considered Brazil’s World Cup to loose given their rich history in the tournament, home ground advantage and depth of their squad. For them, anything other than being crowned champions will be considered a major disaster. Argentina though boasting the tournament’s most lethal attack, excellent World Cup pedigree and familiarity of the host nation will be looking to deny their bitter rivals.

Irrespective of which country will have the last laugh, the next few weeks will be a celebration of unprecedented proportions for football fans around the world. Enjoy the skill, the diverse culture, the anticipation of success and above all the witnessing of history. Hopefully a player or two will take this World Cup by storm and own it the way Diego Maradona did at World Cup 1986. I have a feeling it may just be a player in the same blue and white jersey the last true World Cup hero donned.